Canada market intelligence: holding on
Our Q3 2025 Canada market intelligence report provides market and provincial analysis for the region, as well as economic insights from our team of industry experts.
Economic and construction overview
Canada’s economy contracted in Q2 2025, with persistent uncertainty and growing tariff headwinds leading to investor indecision and disjointed global trade.
Although economic activity dropped, the construction industry improved. However, growth has tapered off and gains remain uneven as segmental, sectoral and provincial divergences become more acute.
A steady stream of public works has supplemented the private sector’s investment slowdown, with industrial activity and trade-impacted geographies such as Ontario, bearing the brunt of falling confidence.
How market conditions are influencing escalation forecasts
Input costs rose again, fueled by trade dislocation and skill imbalances. However, material gains are moderate and labour market slack is growing, pointing to muted growth in the short term.
Our bid price forecasts have moderated in 2025 and 2026 as slower industry growth feeds into increased competition. Yet escalation in 2027 could regain traction as planned fiscal stimulus translates into future activity gains and renewed resource constraints.
Bill C-5 Sets the stage for Canada’s economic resilience
With Bill C-5 set to become law, implementation of that legislation will be one lever the Canadian government can pull to help build economic autonomy, resilience and security.
That improvement, alongside increased defense spending and fall budget outcomes, however, is likely to be felt next year when more clarity on Canada’s trading position with the US emerges.
